07-19-2009, 10:01 PM
This began as a hypothesis amongst the research team at ZRT Labs. What would be the rate of infection and reanimation, using the Patient Zero theory, in an urban area.
For the purpose of this study, we will be using a viral incapacitation and reanimation rate of 1 hour via saliva (bite) transmissions, in Philadelphia city center, with an averaged attack duration of 5 minutes per subject. Of course, outcomes will vary substituting other theoretical variables.
Patient Zero, attacking one person per 5 minutes, will create 12 new infected subjects per hour. Once those second tier subjects reanimate, the number of infected will increase to 156 (3rd hour), 1872 (4th hour), 22,464 (6th hour), 269,568 (7th), and 1,347,840 in just under 7.5 hours, which would include nearly the entire population of Philadelphia (1.45 million).
While this is simply a rough numerological exercise, it does put a surprising perspective as how rapidly a virus can spread in a densely populated area. It does serve to re-enforce the principle of rapid reaction time to an outbreak, as with this example there will be nearly 2,000 infected within 4 hours from Patient Zero exposure. We can look at the events of 9/11 and see how long it took to advise the public of the reality of the situation, and even longer for us to realize the scope.
For the purpose of this study, we will be using a viral incapacitation and reanimation rate of 1 hour via saliva (bite) transmissions, in Philadelphia city center, with an averaged attack duration of 5 minutes per subject. Of course, outcomes will vary substituting other theoretical variables.
Patient Zero, attacking one person per 5 minutes, will create 12 new infected subjects per hour. Once those second tier subjects reanimate, the number of infected will increase to 156 (3rd hour), 1872 (4th hour), 22,464 (6th hour), 269,568 (7th), and 1,347,840 in just under 7.5 hours, which would include nearly the entire population of Philadelphia (1.45 million).
While this is simply a rough numerological exercise, it does put a surprising perspective as how rapidly a virus can spread in a densely populated area. It does serve to re-enforce the principle of rapid reaction time to an outbreak, as with this example there will be nearly 2,000 infected within 4 hours from Patient Zero exposure. We can look at the events of 9/11 and see how long it took to advise the public of the reality of the situation, and even longer for us to realize the scope.